Since the New Year, the A-share market has intensified volatility, the bond market has fluctuated upward, and the prices of bulk commodities have risen significantly. In the complex market, how should investors use the "base" layout? Highly professional and risk-diversified FOF funds are a good choice to buy a basket of high-quality funds for investors. Huaan Pension 2040 (code: 010320), jointly managed by He Yizhi and Yang Zhiyuan, is being issued. The fund will select high-quality funds from the entire market to build a scientific fund investment portfolio.
At present, the three major A-share indexes continue to fluctuate, and the performance of various funds varies. How does the market outlook go? He Yizhi analyzed that from a macroeconomic perspective, the epidemic is about to come to an end, and the global economy has entered the real economy upwards and the virtual economy downwards. The dislocation recovery phase. Offline consumption has gradually returned to normal, production and supply chains have resumed, and economic activities have recovered rapidly. At the beginning of this year, the growth rate of social financing has crossed a high point, and the economic growth rate is expected to start to slow down in the second half of this year. The extraordinary monetary easing and fiscal relief policies of developed countries have brought about a sharp rise in the stock market and commodities, and inflation expectations have begun to rise. my country began marginal tightening of monetary policy at the end of April last year, and the expected policy withdrawal and liquidity tightening measures of the capital market are on the way.
The A-share market will be subject to the dual constraints of economic recovery and market liquidity. Tightening the margin of market liquidity will increase the level of risk-free interest rates, increase the denominator end of the valuation model, reduce market risk appetite, and depress the valuation level. Economic growth and corporate profit restoration will enhance the molecular end of the valuation model and support the improvement of stock prices. The struggle between the two under the influence of policy marginal adjustments, market expectations changes and event-driven factors will determine the direction of the market.
Specific to the investment of various types of funds, He Yizhi said that in terms of partial stock funds, the structural adjustment of the A-share market this year contains rich investment opportunities, and after the callback, the market valuation level has become more reasonable, and some industry sectors have entered long-term funds to build positions. Interval. In terms of style, the value style is dominant in the short term, and the balance of value and growth funds is still maintained in the medium term. Focus on the large financial sector, the procyclical sector, the large consumer sector, and the technology sector with high prosperity and favorable policies.
In terms of bond funds, global Treasury bond yields have rebounded rapidly, inflation expectations have risen, and China-US bond spreads have shrunk, putting a certain upward pressure on domestic bond yields. Under the conditions of rising loan interest rates and credit contraction, the maturity of credit bonds is relatively large, and the risk of credit default cannot be ignored. For a period of time in the future, interest rates will maintain a top-end turbulence pattern. After the economic growth slows down, there may be room for interest rate downside. In the short to medium term, fixed-income asset investments are dominated by reverse repurchase, currency funds, short-term bond funds, medium and high-grade credit bonds, and pure bond funds without the allocation of convertible bonds. After confirming that the interest rate has peaked, an appropriate amount can be added to the long-duration bond fund.
In addition, in terms of commodity funds, global liquidity, economic recovery, the implementation of environmental protection policies and the growth of infrastructure investment have promoted the rise of commodity prices. However, there is a boundary for the recovery of global demand. The elasticity of the supply of bulk commodities such as crude oil is sufficient. Some commodities are suspected of over-trading in the early stage. The phased strengthening of the US dollar index restricts the upward momentum of bulk commodity prices. It is recommended to invest in non-ferrous metal commodity funds at low levels.
In this context, the new product Huaan Pension will adopt a multi-asset allocation strategy in the year 2040. Equity asset allocation follows the downward trajectory constraint, and the allocation ratio is dynamically adjusted within the allowable range. In principle, the deviation range from the downward curve asset allocation center is no more than 10% upward and no more than 15% downward. As the investor’s retirement target date of 2040 approaches, the fund’s equity asset allocation ratio will gradually decrease, and the fixed income asset ratio will gradually increase.
When constructing the fund investment portfolio, Huaan Pension will select different types of fund products from multiple dimensions in 2040. Through the "primary fund library-alternative fund library-core fund library" three-level screening model to select sub-funds level by level, discover high-quality funds with long-term investment value for investment layout, and at the same time integrate risk management awareness throughout the entire investment process , Continuous and strict tracking and evaluation of investment targets.